In the Kharkiv Oblast counteroffensives advanced to within 20 kilometers of Russia’s key logistical node in Kupyansk on September 8.
Ukrainian forces will likely capture Kupyansk in the next 72 hours, severely degrading but not completely severing Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum.
Ukrainian forces are continuing to target Russian GLOCs, command-and-control points, and ammunition depots in Kherson Oblast.
Ukrainian forces should be able to take Kupyansk and Izyum in the Northeast. This would cut off one of the supply lines and force the retreat of about 20,000 Russian soldiers. Ukraine could also take Kherson up to the Dnipro river in the south. This would again force the retreat of another 20,000 Russian soldiers. Ukraine would retake key cities and advance 20-50 miles. They would regain about 2000-4000 square kilometers in territory.
Taking Kherson would allow Ukraine to cut off water to Crimea. This would make things logistically much more difficult for Russia in Crimea. It could also put them in range to threaten a rail bridge on the other side of Crimea. Taking out that bridge would cut off most supplies and reinforcement to Russian forces in Crimea.
Denys is a Ukrainian so his videos are biased. However, he has accurate maps and covers the likely offensive plans that Ukraine wants to achieve.
Taking out the flanks of Russia’s positions is the path to Ukraine pushing Russian forces out of the country. It is unclear if military operations on both sides will become static during the winter months from late October to March or April. It could still take another year for Russia to be forced out. The fastest this could happen is Izyum and Kherson fall this month, then Crimea bridge gets cutoff and then Himars hits key ammo depots and command centers for 2-4 months. Crimea and another similar sized area falls on the Northeast side. Six months seems like the fastest it could happen.
There are reports that Morgues in Mariupol have been processing 87000-123,000 civilian bodies. There are also reports that Russia has had 25,000-50,000 soldiers killed. Ukraine has also likely lost upwards of 20,000 soldiers. The war has likely killed over 250,000 people and injured three times that number.
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