Top 1% Futurist Forecaster on Metaculus

Home » Artificial intelligence » Top 1% Futurist Forecaster on Metaculus Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture, is ranked 47th all time on the public prediction website -Metaculus and is ranked 35th for the past 12 months. Brian has a brier score of 0.088. Lower brier scores are more accurate. If predictions were random results and someone had…
Top 1% Futurist Forecaster on Metaculus


Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture, is ranked 47th all time on the public prediction website -Metaculus and is ranked 35th for the past 12 months. Brian has a brier score of 0.088. Lower brier scores are more accurate. If predictions were random results and someone had 50% confidence of 50% results then the brier score would be 0.25.

The Metaculus algorithm has a brier score of 0.088 and the Metaculus community has a brier score of 0.093.

As an individual forecaster I, Brian Wang, am beating the collective forecasting capability of the Metaculus group and I am matching the Metaculus algorithm.

There are about 5000 active Metaculus forecasters. Therefore, Brian Wang is in the top 1% of public futurist predictors. 65% of my predictions on the site are totally accurate and were made with very high 98-100% confidence. Over 90% of the predictions were right with fairly high or with moderate confidence.

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