The Decade of CHANGE

This coming decade will be seen as THE decade of CHANGE that defines and shapes the next 100 and even next thousand years. This new decade will be even more important than any developments in the past 2000 years. It will transition us from the world similar to the 20th century to a science fiction…
The Decade of CHANGE

This coming decade will be seen as THE decade of CHANGE that defines and shapes the next 100 and even next thousand years. This new decade will be even more important than any developments in the past 2000 years. It will transition us from the world similar to the 20th century to a science fiction world but world far richer and better than any old science fiction story.

Two critical technologies will change our world more than you realize. There will be a rapid shift to self-driving cars and humanoid robots. Humanoid bots will be developed from self-driving car Artificial Intelligence.

UPDATE Why This Decade for Self Driving Cars and Humanoid Bots

A commenter asked why this decade, what is so special I believe that the Tesla FSD beta will be successful. It is already being used in over 100,000 cars. The emergence and success of self driving can be seen with technology and performance improvements and there is increasing financial strength and success. There is improvement in the software stack (unifying the highway, city streets and parking) into one neural net. There is improvement in the training (Dojo). There is youtube video evidence from testers that non-intervention driving is increasing. This is not geo limited like it is for Waymo, Cruise and others. There were tests and competitions to prove that steam trains were superior to alternatives in the 1820-1830 timeframe. Your definition of self driving car is robotaxi level. This will be later in 2023 or 2024. Maybe 2025 if significant delays. All Tesla’s will have FSD capability. So after market adoption is possible. 3M Tesla now on the roads. About 4M by the end of 2022 and 7M by the end of 2023, 12M by the end of 2024, 20M by the end of 2025. Once the FSD non-beta is ready and then robotaxi level, there will be over the air update options for the fleet of Tesla’s to adopt. Tesla Semi will be able to use FSD for platooning to increase efficiency by 30%. The FSD pure vision approach is one that will scale into lower cost Teslabots. Tesla has the manufacturing scale to mass produce successful Teslabots by the millions, billions and then beyond. They will have the R&D and the patience to drive through to the final vision.

Tesla FSD going non-beta will convert billions of dollars into accounting recognized revenue. It will increase the adoption rate. Instead of 10% of people choosing to buy FSD and wait for it to be available, more people will buy and get access immediately. FSD going non-beta at the end of 2022 or first quarter 2023 will mean billions more in profit for Tesla which will then have extra resources to continue to robotaxi self-driving and to achieve success with Humanoid Teslabot.

Teslabot getting perfected in the Tesla factories. If Tesla can reach use Teslabots or a mix of Teslabots and humans to achieve improved production will mean more human workers to increase production at other factory bottlenecks. I see this as a path over the next to six four years to increase Tesla factory production rates by 10% and then 20% and 50% and then double. This would increase Tesla revenues in 2025 from 8M times $60,000 average selling price for $480 billion annual revenue to say 12M or $720 billion annual revenue or 16M ($960 billion in annual revenue.)

The economic model that will drive continued Teslabot work and the technological capabilities make me optimistic about success.

More on THE Decade of CHANGE

How we move and build things is fundamental to our economy and our wealth and these will change both how we move and do things.

The size of our GDP economy is the number of transactions times the average size of transactions we all have in a year.

Moving and making things faster and cheaper means more transactions and thus more wealth.

This will be a bigger impact than the internet and it is a special extension of computers. The internet and digital economies are on top of the physical world of moving and making things. Expanding and speeding the physical world expands the physical foundation of the digital world.

It will be the decade that starts replacing the industrial age with an exponential industrial age.

Transportation will become two to three times cheaper and faster and labor will become vastly cheaper, faster and abundant.

The 1836-1845 rail boom and the 1911-1921 car booms were not the end of the story for rail and cars but they were clearly the strong beginning where change was established. 2023 to 2032 self-driving car and humanoid bot booms will establish the beginning of the biggest transformation in human history.

[1/3] THE Decade of CHANGE via @YouTube

1836-1845 was the decade that established rail.

1911-1921 was the decade of the car and mass production.

2023-2032 will be bigger than either of those decades $TSLA #future @elonmusk @ARKInvest

— nextbigfuture (@nextbigfuture) August 17, 2022

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