If people listened and believed what Elon said in the 2021 earnings call then they would hear the message that the tipping point for full self driving is this year. The annual report says there are 60,000 FSD beta users. This is out of about 300,000 US FSD beta purchasers. Elon says he would be shocked if they do not get FSD safer than human this year.
Elon said Optimus the Teslabot is the most important product they are working upon. It will be bigger than cars, energy and robotaxi.
If believed then there will 300,000 US FSD users this year. The general release of FSD beta to all FSD purchasers sounds like Q2 or Q3. Nextbigfuture expects this would drive FSD adoptions up and other countries would get their versions of FSD late this year or next year. This would likely get to a highly useful robotaxi level next year. Robotaxi likely needs to be at least twice as safe as human in order to show statistically to regulators that it is clearly statistically safer. Four to ten times safer for two to three standard deviations beyond human.
They are already making Tesla Semis. A safer than human level FSD would mean highway and city semi truck driving FSD. This would be something where the use case of safer than human, twice as safe as human and four times safer than human would have high economic value.
The full self driving AI would be used as starting point for navigation and control to guide the Teslabot. A useful robot product could be 2025-2027 in this scenario. 2030s the robots as become as common as droids in Star Wars. Elon and his team said it over and over but the belief was not in the listeners (stock analysts),
Tesla and Elon are so confident that they are saying .. Tesla will not lower prices but we will still sell every car they make. Every car at $50-60k per car. Value of the cars will go up over 5X. You can drive 85 hours per week instead of 17 hours per week.
Tesla roadmap change is FSD and Teslabot focused roadmap. This will replace labor and make the world economy unlimited.
SOURCES- Tesla, Elon Musk, David Lee Investing
Written By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com (Brian has shares of Tesla)
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
