There are some documents that report internal production plans for Tesla for Q4 2022 at about 495K. The plans also indicate 100,000 cars in the Q3 2023 for Austin and 90,000 cars for Q3 2023 for Berlin.
Those seem like relatively conservative numbers. Tesla should be able to reach 5000 per week in Berlin and Austin in Q1 of 2023 which is about 65,000 each in Q1 of 2023. Reaching 100,000 for Q3 would be short of 10,000 per week of 130,000 per quarter.
This kind of production ramp tracking would be to about 2.6M assuming only modest gains from Fremont and Shanghai in 2023.
I am expecting Tesla to reach 2.8 to 3.0 million cars in 2023. This would require getting to 120,000 to 130,000 in Q3 2023 from each of the Austin and Berlin factories and getting some production from the new Shanghai expansion(s).
The Reuters like is implying something like:
Q4 2022 495k
Q1 2023 530k
Q2 2023 580k
Q3 2023 660k
Q4 2023 720k
About 2.6M for 2023.
My forecast is more like:
Q4 2022 510k
Q1 2023 550k
Q2 2023 650k
Q3 2023 780k
Q4 2023 920k
About 2.9M for 2023.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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