Dillon Loomis reports from a credible source that the Tesla Megapack factory in Lathrop is currently producing 12 Megapacks per day. This would be over 1000 Megapacks per quarter and about 4.2 GWh per quarter. This would be 42% of the stated 40 GWH per year capacity of the factory.
In volume sales, Tesla Megapacks cost $2.1 million each. The Tesla Megapack each have 3.9-megawatt hours of storage.
The Tesla Megapacks take time to ship to project locations and then they have to be placed onto cement pads and have grid connections. The grid connections involve working with the local electric utilities.
Tesla installed 2-gigawatt hours of energy in the last quarter of Q4. The production rate shows that Tesla is ramping megapacks with shipment, project and deployment delays for revenue recognition.
The 2 Megapacks made per day built in Nevada are part of the 1 Gigawatt of energy along with Tesla residential powerwalls that were deployed quarterly earlier in 2022.
Nextbigfuture projects 3 to 4 gigawatts of energy for the first quarter of 2023. This would be 2-3 gigawatts from Lathrop and 1 gigawatt from Nevada. It would be reasonable to expect 1 gigawatt growth in the energy business in each Q2 an Q3.
Nextbigfuture projection of Tesla Energy by quarter
Q4 2022A 2 gigawatt Q1 2023e 3-4 gigawatts Q2 2023e 4-5 gigawatts Q3 2023e 5-6 gigawatts Q4 2023e 5-8 gigawatts
I have had several videos and articles describing how Megapacks are critical to enabling electric Semi trucks and in particular the Tesla Semi to be deployed at scale. Truck electrification is critical to reducing oil usage by 20 million barrels per day over the two decades or so. It will also enable huge costs savings and improvements in the global supply chain.
There are 6-50% tax credits for the companies that buy and install the Megapacks. Tesla can and will use its own Megapacks at megacharging stations. Tesla will get producer tax credits and will get deployment tax credits where they use Megapacks in their own projects.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
