There is a lot of confusion and misinformation when we look at electric vehicle competition.
There are many common mistakes or problems in reported EV data and analysis.
* there is the inclusion of plug in hybrid vehices with battery electric vehicle sales
Plug in hybrids (PHEV) have combustion engines. Norway has seen PHEV sales collapse as they make the full transition to electric vehicles. Norway is a country that now has 80-90% BEV sales. ICE (combustion engines) and PHEV have both collapsed in that most advanced EV market.
* China and other EV markets do not get broken out into clear price categories. This is especially problematic in China where only 20% of 2.9 BEV vehicles sold in 2021 were in the $38K+ price range. Tesla has 55% of the $38k+ BEV China market.
Looking at apples to apples price categories and vehicle segments shows Tesla maintaining 55-75% market share. In Europe Tesla only has about 25-30% market share for comparitive priced EVs. But Tesla is hampered by $15k for import duties and shipping costs. This handicap will go away with the Berlin factory fully ramped.
Cybertruck for US and an Refreshed Standard Range Model 3 is Key for Higher Sales in China/Europe
Cybertruck is key for Tesla to address 70%% of the US market which is dominated by large trucks and large SUVs. The Model Y does have a 7-seat version which does enable some competition for the 7-seat SUV market.
Tesla’s gigapresses and improved batteries will enable Tesla to extend its advantage for lower costs and efficiency and increase the number of cars they can sell in more price sensitive China and Europe. Constant improvement in Tesla vehicles could enable Tesla to get to Model 3 Standard range that is acceptable but $15-20k lower in cost than the current starter lowest cost versions in 2024-2025.
The old standard range cost $10,000 less and weighed 3550 pounds with a 50 kwh battery and 263 miles of range. Improved standard range $5000 less ($31k instead of $46k) weighing only 3300 pound instead of 3880 pound Model 3 and a 2024 higher efficiency 44 kwh battery and 260+ miles of range. Batteries with more advanced iron LFP (perhaps with magnesium for increased range and efficiency.
Tesla needs to improve the batteries and range of the MIC Model 3 standard range. It is heavier likely because of the iron LFP batteries. Tesla needs to remove 15% of the weight and batteries without losing range over the next two years.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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