There were about 2.5 million EVs out of 4.6 million are in a similar category as Tesla. EVs that are over $25k in price. Traditional ICE cars are segmented into various size, truck and price categories. The EV market needs to have category segmentation for meaningful analysis. China had 1.1 million EVs out of 2.75 million that were similar category as Tesla vehicles. Tesla would have 37% of the market for EVs over $25,000 in price and 50% of the market for EVs over $30,000 in price. Tesla has over 60% market share in the US. Tesla could maintain 40-50% market share. Tesla could get this in all segments where they choose to compete. Tesla is or will be choosing to compete in the mid-range and above for sedans, compact, compact SUV, SUV, Trucks, Semi and Vans.
If we tighten up the classification of a Tesla competitor to those that are over $30000 then the true competitors are VW, Ford, Nio, Hyundia/Kia, some high-end Xpeng and WM Motors.
China had 2.75 million units of passenger BEVs sold annually compared to 600,000 units of PHEV sold.
Europe had 1.2 million BEV sales in 2021. There were 1.03 million PHEV sales in Europe in 2021.
BYD sold over $20,000 BEV. Nio had starting prices of about $50000 but could go as low as $40000 with a battery as a service model.
Tesla 936000 (China, US and Europe)
Volkswagen Group: 451,131 (mainly Europe)
BYD: 323,143 (China)
Hyundai: 216,562 (mainly Europe and US, 120k Hyundia and 100k Kia)
GAC Aion 123,660 (china, about $25000 sedans)
Xpeng 98,155 (china, prices start at $25000)
Nio 91,429 (china, prices start at $50000)
Ford Mach E 50,000 (about 24000 in US and 22000 in Europe)
GM 30,000 (bolts all recalled)
WM Motor 44,157 (china $25k-50k EV)
Leap Motor 43,121 (china $20-30k EV)
Brand December Total (w PHEV) BEV Only BYD* 92,823 593,745 1 Tesla 70,847 473,078 2 Hongguang Mini EV ** approx. 400,000 3 Ora 20,926 135,028 4 (some higher en GAC Aion 16,675 123,660 5 Geely* 18,813 100,126 6 Xpeng 16,000 98,155 7 Nio 10,489 91,429 8 Volkswagen (MEB) 13,747 70,625 9 Neta Automobile 10,127 69,674 10 (about $12000) WM Motor 5,062 44,157 11 ($25k-50k EV) Leap Motor 7,807 43,121 12 ($20-30k EV) Sokon* 6,150 41,440 13 BAIC* 4,198 26,127 14 Voyah*** 3,330 6,791 15 Zeekr**** 3,796 6,007 16
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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