Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla FSD Beta version 11 is available to all FSD customers. About 200,000 people who purchased FSD can activate FSD version 11 if they request it.
UPDATE:
Tesla Full Self-Driving Beta is now available to anyone in North America who requests it from the car screen, assuming you have bought this option.
Congrats to Tesla Autopilot/AI team on achieving a major milestone!
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 24, 2022
fsd beta 11 still looking on track for release to customer testers before thanksgiving?
— Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) November 23, 2022
This would mean about $1.09 billion in deferred revenue would be recognized for Q4. The 15% of US customers that are currently buying in Q1 and onwards would be fully recognized. This would be about $300M of extra Q1 income for 100% of revenue instead of 50%. If the US Tesla FSD take rate increases to 20% for new purchases and 2% per quarter for more people who previously bought cars but not FSD this would mean about 40,000 more sales per quarter or about $600 million. In 2023, it would be about $3 billion. Increasing take rate and getting those who already bought cars but did not buy FSD purchase is the big prize. Plus, Tesla could improve the highway only enhanced autopilot with superior FSD for highway and add in smart summon in all parking lots.
This would still be pre-robotaxi level. The human still needs to monitor the car. However, it is a significant milestone towards robotaxi level 4 capability. I define robotaxi at scale as one million cars capable of giving humanless rides. Tesla just needs to get the software working and sent out via over the air updates. There would be over one million cars capable of providing those capabilities and a network could be giving rides from customer cars once the software is ready. Other companies chasing robotaxi have to build the dedicated vehicles with the sensors and software and deploy them in cities that approve. The Lidar and other sensors will take years to scale. None of the other companies can get to 1 million robotaxis before 2028 and likely 2035.
Tesla can just continue building cars and every car they make will be robotaxi ready. Tesla is targeting 20 million cars oer year by 2030. 20 million robotaxis with each operating at the usage rate (50,000 miles per year) of an average taxi cab would generate about $1 trillion at $1 per mile.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
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