SpaceX and China were roughly tied in 2022 with 61 and 62 orbital launches but SpaceX had more payload. Combined SpaceX and China were 80% of orbital launches in 2022. SpaceX is on pace to double its launches in 2023. Elon indicates that SpaceX should deliver 80% of all of the payloads in 2023. This is even without the Super Heavy Starship getting into operation.
Super Heavy Starship will eventually have more frequent launches and each launch will have five to ten times the payload.
SpaceX will have built five complete Super-heavy Starships by the end of 2023. If those were flying every week in 2024, then that would be 250 launches with five to seven times the payload. This would mean about 15 times the payload versus 2023.
SpaceX has a Raptor engine factory that can scale to 4000 engines per year. This would be enough for one hundred Super-Heavy Starships per year. This could mean 10,000 launches per year with 10 times the payload in each launch. This would be one thousand times the 2023 payload launch capacity. SpaceX would reach 99.99% of payloads with a fleet of 100+ Super Heavy Starships. This seems to be certain by 2026.
SpaceX’s three main competitors in Russia, Europe, and the United States have launched three rockets in 2023. SpaceX just launched three missions in three days.
Provided there is no serious launch anomaly, SpaceX will deliver 80% of Earth’s payload to orbit this year.
Not counting Starship.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 20, 2023
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
