Sabine Hossenfelder predicted that the first superconducting replications will fail and then we will never hear of LK-99 and doped Larkanite superconductors again.
Sabine predicts first published replication attempts for making superconducting LK99 would be failures. This was correct.The first two published experimental replications from India and China were negative (aka they did not find their prepared sample to be superconducting). However, there are now reported but unpublished results which are at least partially positive.
However, the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab simulation supporting LK-99 and the Shenyang national lab first principle paper suggesting using gold and silver to dope to make superconductors indicates that Sabine will likely be wrong.
Sabine rushed her Youtube ahead of her normal Wednesday release schedule in order to get a video out on the LK-99 topic. She should have waited until Wednesday and she would have had the Berkeley simulation paper information and partial positive experimental reports.
I don’t hate Sabine. I, Brian Wang, am predicting that LK-99 will matter and will lead to significant developments and a new category of superconducting material. I am tracking and citing. There is incomplete information right now. We are both making predictions with incomplete information.
This article just makes both predictions public. I could be wrong. She could be right. She could be wrong and I could be right. There is also a lot of in between possibilities.
However, it is definitely not the fraud scenario. It could be mistakes.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
