Measuring Progress from the Dawn of Man to Universal Civilization

How Can We Usefully Measure Technology Progress? Can we have a scale that is immune to the Technology Singularity? Can we compare humanity on a common scale with animals and aliens? It is possible and I think a new approach is far more useful than the Kardashev scale or other past approaches. Kardashev scale Amount…
Measuring Progress from the Dawn of Man to Universal Civilization


How Can We Usefully Measure Technology Progress? Can we have a scale that is immune to the Technology Singularity?

Can we compare humanity on a common scale with animals and aliens?

It is possible and I think a new approach is far more useful than the Kardashev scale or other past approaches.

Kardashev scale


Amount of energy used


Type 1- Solar energy reaching a planet (2×10^17 watts)


Type 2- Energy of our Sun (4×10^26 watts)


Type 3 – Energy of our Galaxy (4×10^37 watts)

Doublings and Doubling times are the keys to meaningful and useful long-run development measurement.

33 Doublings in population from the first person to today.

Normal economic doubling for the past 100 years and the expected levels to 2100.

Doubling every 25 years for last 100 years


WW2 had 15 times less steel and oil. Four doublings of key materials used globally.


World if PPP doubling every 25 years til 2100


$220 trillion (2011 dollars) in 2045. [$24k per person]

$440 trillion (2011 dollars) in 2070


$880 trillion (2011 dollars) in 2095.

Meaningful Technology Acceleration is Extra doublings.

Acceleration adds more doublings


Level 1 Extra double 2020-2045 : $440 trillion PPP GDP by 2045 [$50k per person]

Level 2 Extra 2045-2070: $1760 trillion PPP GDP by 2070 [$176k per person]

Level 3 Extra by 2095 $7040 trillion by 2095 [$700k per person]

6% per year world GDP growth instead of 3% per year for 25 years

There are 16 doublings to achieve a Type 1 Civilization.

If Teslabots become equivalent to a single person productivity.

Then at Kardashev Type One the average person should have the wealth of Elon Musk in 2030.

Kardashev Type 1 Abundance


Everyone has 100k Teslabots


5 Gigafactories for everyone


50,000 X per person energy at Kardashev 1 of human population is about the same as today. If ten times as many people then 5000x per person energy and other abundance

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