The critical part of Tesla investor day is that the Teslabot was shown walking and making other Teslabots. However, the actual presentation was long and all of the key points were hidden under a lot of repeated information from other presentations. Tesla needed to come out with the five to 15 minute super-cuts that are being put out now by Youtubers. Also, Tesla needed to say more clearly with some timelines or new completed capabilties. We will have to wait for the execution and promised product reveals later in 2023.
Masterplan Part 3 is Teslabot making Teslabots, cars, trucks, batteries and megapacks.
Tesla’s factory production process for cars is going to a modular process. This will allow for 44% higher operator (factory worker) density and 30% more efficiency. It also means it will be more dense for Tesla bot construction.
Bots making bots, trucks and megapacks in 10x factories. We are talking 100x. 1000x stock. Singularity as economy of the world explodes in wealth and productivity. 2030 or 2032 if things take longer. Tesla is not committing to date but the prize is clear and the pieces are coming together. When the pieces come together then Tesla rapidly heads to 4 million Semi trucks per year and 20 million Cybertruck. Four years after the bots factories spun up Tesla will have $5 trillion per year of revenue just from vehicles and energy with 80% margin. This means $4 trillion in net income before FSD. Tesla net income will be as much as Apple valuation. Robotruck, robotaxi software and other revenue will increase this number. Teslabot installing and building solar will be huge too. Masterplan 3 is Teslabot.
They had a very brief reveal of Teslabots making other Teslabots. In the four hour talk, they sprinkled in mentions of the bots working in the factory. Ultimately, there will be more one Teslabot per person. This would mean over 10 billion Teslabots.
Tesla is making over $8-9 billion per year in free cashflow in 2022 and $5 billion in 2021. Tesla has over $22 billon in cash. If free cashflow grew at 50% every year, then $12 billion in 2023, $18 billion in 2024, $27 billion in 2025 etc …
However, adding 1 million Teslabots in redesigned factories and processes in 2025, would enable a leap in productivity. There could be 5X to 10X the factories over 1-3 years.
$150-175 billion is needed to build the manufacturing for 20 million cars per year.
$300 billion is needed to build all of the HVAC systems for home energy to clean up the environment as much as all electric vehicles.
Car expert Sandy Munro saw in the presentation video a hairpin motor. Tesla and all other EV makers have wound motors. Hairpin motor increases the power by 30%. Sandy munro saw a big new casting. Sandy saw an inverter with 24 mosfets instead of 16. This means more power can be converred. This inverter is for something bigger than a cybertruck. It might be for the Semi. Sandy forecasts Tesla will have 50% margins next year. Sandy and his company take apart all cars and costs them precisely.
There was a slide that showed the cost of a Tesla model 3 is reduced by 30% from 2018 from 2022. Sandy had costed the 2018 model 3 at $33,600. A 30% reduction would be $24000. This 30% reduction is after adjusting for lithium, nickel and other key material price changes.
Tesla is going to 48 volt low voltage power system up from 12 volts. This means four times less copper and wiring. Wiring will be lighter for a more efficient car. Previously, Peter Zeihan had said that scaling electric cars would run out of copper. Tesla next power system will use zero rare earth materials. The 48 volt system with less wiring will be easier for Teslabot to assemble.
Tesla was demonstrating the next level manufacturing and design where even if there was no robotaxi but just manufactured cars, trucks and energy storage that Tesla still wins.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.