Impact of Tesla Ramping 4680 Battery Lines in 2024

From January to May, total global battery consumption for electric vehicles (EVs) was 237.6 GWh, up 52.3 percent from 156.0 GWh in the same period last year, according to data released today by South Korean market research firm SNE Research. 104 GWH was installed in April and May. There was likely about 57 GWH of…
Impact of Tesla Ramping 4680 Battery Lines in 2024

From January to May, total global battery consumption for electric vehicles (EVs) was 237.6 GWh, up 52.3 percent from 156.0 GWh in the same period last year, according to data released today by South Korean market research firm SNE Research. 104 GWH was installed in April and May. There was likely about 57 GWH of batteries installed in June. This would be 295 GWh of batteries installed in the first half of 2023 globally.

Tesla 920k produced cars in the first half of 2023. If the cars used an average of 75 kWh each then this would be 69 GWh of batteries. This means that Tesla used about 23.5% of the batteries in the world. Tesla also installed about 10 GWh of batteries into energy storage products like Megapacks and Powerwalls. The non-EV batteries are counted separately.

If John at Cleanerwatt is correct on Tesla 4680 production. He estimates about 2.7 GWh of batteries produced in Texas and Fremont. This would be about 1% of total world battery production for EVs.


If there is another 50% increase in EV batteries in 2024, then there should be 450 GWH of batteries produced in the first half of 2024. If Tesla produced 10 GWh of batteries in the first half of 2024 then Tesla would be making over 2% of world production. Tesla should be completing multiple production lines (three more at Texas) and lines in Berlin and China. When Tesla has sorted out production issues and ramps 5-10X the production lines then this would be when Tesla becomes a significant battery player.

Tesla should be making 1.3 to 1.5 million cars in the first half of 2024. This would be 100 GWh to 120 GWh of batteries. Tesla should move up from producing about 4% of its car battery needs to producing about 10%.

When Tesla gets up to 100 GWH/year of battery production then Tesla will be able to make $30-60 billion/year in additional production. This will likely cost Tesla about $6 billion to make and save about $2 billion in savings against CATL margins.

It costs about $30-60 million for each GWh per year of battery factory. It would be about $3-6 billion for Tesla in capital commitments to make 100 GWH/year of battery factory capacity. It would be 2-3 years to payback the battery factories for battery cost savings, but profit from increased vehicle and megapack production would be higher.

Read More

Total
0
Shares
Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

Related Posts
How Bad Could a US Bank Crisis Get? Maybe 190 Banks
Read More

How Bad Could a US Bank Crisis Get? Maybe 190 Banks

There is a research paper from researchers at four major universities that tries to calculate how bad the banking crisis could get. Erica Xuewei Jiang, University of Southern California Gregor Matvos, Northwestern University – Kellogg School of Management Tomasz Piskorski, Columbia University – Columbia Business School, Finance Amit Seru, Stanford University Monetary Tightening and U.S.…
Flipster to give away huge 1,500,000 USDT worth of Bonus
Read More

Flipster to give away huge 1,500,000 USDT worth of Bonus

Home » Blockchain » Flipster to give away huge 1,500,000 USDT worth of Bonus seychelles, seychelles, July 17th, 2023, Chainwire As part of Flipster’s (formerly AQX) name launch, the business today announced an additional 1,500,000 USD worth of bonus rewards to encourage new users to join and trade on their exchange. Until the rewards are…
Quantifying and Identifying Singularity Level Technology
Read More

Quantifying and Identifying Singularity Level Technology

The concept of Singularity is popular for futurists and for science fiction writers. However, it is very vague. It is an intelligence or technology “explosion”. What does that mean? We don’t know. How do you measure it? I have a proposal. I think it is more useful to define and quantify a Singularity as a…