There were 3.4 million cars on dealer lots in February 2023 and there were about 4 million at the end of March 2023. 75% of the cars are ICE (Internal combustion engine).
Ford revealed their EV division financials for Q1 2023. Ford is taking about $110,000 to make $55,000 BEVs. Ford is losing about $50,000 to $60,000 for each electric car that they make. GM and Renault and other legacy car makers are also losing massive amounts for each electric car that they make. Ford is the second largest electric car maker by unit volume in for US sales.
The China market is about one to two years ahead of Europe in the transition to EVs and about three to four years ahead of the United States. The US needs large volumes of big electric pickups and large electric SUVs. Japanese car makers make almost no BEVs. Japanese car makers have already lost over 30% of their car sales in China. All legacy car makers of gasoline cars will lost another 20% of their China sales in the remainder of 2023. China ICE sales will be halved again in 2024.
New vehicle sales in China increased by almost 10% to 2,451,000 units in March 2023 from 2,234,000 in the same month of last year, according to passenger car and commercial vehicle wholesale data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM).
Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs), mainly electrics and hybrids, increased 35% to 653,000 units in March and 26% to 1,586,000 year to date (YTD).
First quarter sales were down 7% at 6,076,000 units from 6,509,000 a year earlier, reflecting a 35% drop in January, with sales of passenger vehicles falling 7% to 5,138,000 units while commercial vehicle sales were down just 3% to 938,000.
Deliveries of BEVs increased 14% to 1,152,000 units YTD while sales of hybrid vehicles surged 74% to 434,000.
Vehicle exports jumped 71% to 994,000 units in the first quarter while overall vehicle production fell 4% to 6,210,000.
Sales by SAIC-Volkswagen and Shanghai-GM both dropped 32% to 226,330 and 185,958 units respectively while SAIC-GM-Wuling was the worst-performing joint venture with sales plunging 41% to 192,500 units.
Volkswagen BEV (battery electric vehicle) sales in Q1 2023:
Europe: 98,300 (up 68.1%)
US: 15,700 (up 98.0%)
China: 21,500 (down 25.4%)
Rest of the world: 5,600 (up 37.1%)
Total: 141,000 (up 42.1% year-over-year)
Vehicle sales under the VW brand totaled 427,247 units in China in the first quarter of 2023, with VW China EVs accounting for only 6 percent.
If China’s overall car sales are 6 million per quarter with 2 million BEV/PHEV per quarter for the rest of 2023, then there would be another 10% drop from Q1 2023 for ICE sales. If 1.2 million cars in inventory have to be sold and discounted prices then this would reduce ICE car sales another 10% per quarter in China.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
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