Johnny Harris is a journalist who makes popular youtube videos with some nice animations. Johnny projects that China invading Taiwan would follow the following steps:
Step 0 – China threats, blockades and failed negotiation
Step 1 – China law that Taiwan must be reunified
Step 2 – China air and missile attacks
Step 3 – China storms the beaches
US is indecisive and only responds when China hits the beaches.
This is wrong and there are many other videos (major US and Eurepean media outlets) with this wrong opinion. There is wrong public opinion about this could increase the chances of leadership also believing a false narrative. This is NOT what will happen and it is important that people understand what will happen.
Taiwan has ten times the air and missile defenses of Ukraine and those defenses are mostly in hardened mountain fortifications.
The US will defend Taiwan. No uncertainty. The reason is that Taiwan has Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC). TSMC makes over 80% of the world’s advanced chips. Disrupting the chips would be worse than a 10% hit to global oil supply. The US has gone to war multiple times to prevent oil market disruption.
It is important that US and China leadership are not under any delusions that China attacking has any chance of working out. It would be like Russia attacking Ukraine. A bloody failure for the attacker that just causes financial and human damage.
It is important that the public understands this as well.
China blockading Taiwan or China launching air and missile attack means that Global Big Tech and Wall Street would demand the US Navy and Air Force defend TSMC chip supply.
Also, China attacking Taiwan would be an obvious epic fail. Details on the obvious reasons are in the video.
Military analysts have not updated their analysis with what we have learned in the Russia-Ukraine war.
Key learnings- crappy Russian planes with crappy pilots can be shotdown by cheap Stinger missiles.
The US can provide loads of missiles to countries the US wants to support.
Russia has failed to gain air superiority for months.
Taiwan has more air defenses that are vastly harder to any attacker to hit.
China has not fought an air war in seventy years.
No air superiority and no overwhelming invasion force and no rapid resupply means an epic failure.
The US has fought multiple wars for oil. Semiconductors chips are the World’s new oil. Chip disruption would wreck markets and companies. It is automatic that the US Navy and air force would defense TSMC and its vital chips.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.