ARK Invest has updated its Tesla model and it provides new expected value per share of $4,600 in 2026. Ark Invest is famous for correctly predicting Tesla would run to over $4000 three years before they did. They correctly called a greater than 10X move.
This projection does not factor in scenarios where Tesla has a significant and profitable energy business or a significant Tesla bot business.
The average selling price per car is increasing. Model Y is becoming the top-selling Tesla model. Model Y is currently priced between $60000 and $70000. If there is continued greater demand for electric cars and Tesla’s in particular and inflation does not moderate then the average selling price could go to $70,000 and stay there.
The flood of iron LFP batteries coming from China and 4680 success could allow for 60-80 million cars per year in 2025 and 2026. If Tesla’s Master Plan 3 involves ramping with 8 new factories over the next 3 years then Tesla could ramp in a bull case to 40 million cars in 2026. This would require adjusting to how aggressively Tesla pushes in the next 6-18 months to expand factories. However, the Ark robotaxi scenarios are easily as aggressive as a big Tesla production push.
Doubling the bull case for production and double the ASP would 4X the stock price. A big and profitable energy business would increase it up to 5X or 6X.
I describe how there is a lot of batteries coming from investments already made in China. The factories are already under construction. Having a lot of batteries makes it easier to scale the energy business and car production.
CATL, a major battery manufacturer and one of Tesla’s main battery suppliers, is raising a whopping $9 billion to accelerate its production. CATL plans to reached a global production runrate of 230 GWh at the end of 2021. At an average pack size of 60 kWh,the 2021 runrate production battery capacity can make almost 4 million electric cars per year. CATL has shared plans to ramp production capacity up to 1,200 GWh by 2025, but it will need to grow a massive raw material supply chain in order to make that happen.
The battery cell manufacturer SVOLT, which emerged from the Chinese carmaker Great Wall, wants to significantly increase its production capacities planned for 2025 – from the previously announced 320 GWh to 600 GWh per year by this deadline. [Dec 2021] The company’s management also gave concrete figures: In addition to the annual production capacity target of 600 GWh from 2025 (for comparison: the current largest domestic competitor CATL plans 520 GWh from 2025), SVOLT published the figure of 400 GWh as the status of the order backlog in 2025 (orders from the passenger car sector only). It also said that it was in the process of building eight production sites with a total capacity of 297 GWh per year. Chengdu with capacity of 60 GWh in the third expansion phase. Plants in Huzhou, Nanjing and Suining and more.
SOURCES- Ark Invest
Written by Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com, Brian has shares of Tesla
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.