Accuracy of Nextbigfuture Predictions

Nextbigfuture makes public predictions at Metaculus. I am now ranked 58th (tied for 58th). There are several thousand participants making forecasts at Metaculus. Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. Metaculus focuses on predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs. They also have geopolitical…
Accuracy of Nextbigfuture Predictions


Nextbigfuture makes public predictions at Metaculus. I am now ranked 58th (tied for 58th). There are several thousand participants making forecasts at Metaculus.

Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. Metaculus focuses on predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs. They also have geopolitical predictions related to war and politics. There were also prediction questions around what would happen with COVID.

I also have tracked my other public predictions made on my website or published in other places. I have my articles related to predictions under my predictions tag.

Out of hundreds of predictions that have resolved, I have been correct over 80% of the time.

I have also been highly confident in many of the predictions. If you are highly confident but end up being wrong then you lose a lot of points.

Read More

Total
0
Shares
Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

Related Posts
Speculation on Possible Tesla Big News On Dec 9, 2021
Read More

Speculation on Possible Tesla Big News On Dec 9, 2021

Elon Musk seemed to have been dropping hints that there would be a big announcement on Dec 9, 2021. This had the Tesla community speculating that it could be a stock split but there is some evidence that Dec 9, 2021 could see the announcement of an early start of Cybertruck production. The clues may…
People in NASA Pushing for Leveraging SpaceX Super Heavy Starship
Read More

People in NASA Pushing for Leveraging SpaceX Super Heavy Starship

Some researchers in NASA have written a paper that finally is pushing for NASA to take advantage of the SpaceX Super Heavy Starship. An appreciation of Starship’s capabilities is important for understanding how and why this vehicle can provide unprecedented opportunities for the planetary science community to fly payloads to the Moon and Mars, thus…
Will Artemis SLS Blow Up on the Pad or During the Launch?
Read More

Will Artemis SLS Blow Up on the Pad or During the Launch?

The Artemis Space Launch System was built to be expendable. The rocket has had more fuel loading and unloading from tests and from scrubbed launches than planned. Fuel loading and unloading cycles the rocket between extreme cold and normal temperatures. This can increase cracks and leaks which are already a problem. Winter launch schedules in…
Laser Power Beaming Between Satellites by 2025
Read More

Laser Power Beaming Between Satellites by 2025

The University of Surrey is developing lasers to beam solar power from satellites that are in sunlight to small satellites orbiting which are being eclipsed. The project is part of the £7.4 million national SPRINT (SPace Research and Innovation Network for Technology) program. SPRINT provides unprecedented access to university space expertise and facilities and helps…